Now, both Ryan and Walker are out of office, and Ron Johnson himself made a pledge that this would be his last term, but has since given indication that he may go back on that pledge. Many national Republicans are hoping the governor will challenge Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan – Sununu’s predecessor as governor – when she’s up for reelection in 2022. 0. Take Ohio, a former swing state. Log In; Become a Member Some might wonder why I have North Carolina in Toss-Up, even after endangered Republican Senator Thom Tillis won re-election in 2020. However, if Republicans are able to recruit Governor Chris Sununu, who just won by 30%, this could be a highly competitive race. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 47.0% Hogan, a moderate Trump-critic is one of the nation’s most popular governors. Nevada – Biden+2 – Catherine Cortez Masto(D)+3. Funny. A peculiarity in New Hampshire was that Democrats comfortably won every race for federal office in the state, but Republicans held the governorship and flipped the Executive Council and both houses of the State Legislature. POLL NUMBERS — Hassan has 54 percent approval rating in poll: New Hampshire Gov. Hassan had an approval rating of 57% and a disapproval rating of 38%, while her opponent Havenstein had an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 33%. No credit card required. Edit Close. Down the ballot, in the 2016 Senate race, then-Gov. Her father as a U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development during the Johnson administration and both parents were politically active. Ayotte's Approval Rating Down - Nashua, NH - New poll shows the senator's popularity plunge coincides with recent vote against background checks for gun purchases. He’s floated the idea of running for federal office before, and he won re-election in 2018 by a dozen points, impressive for a Republican in a blue, suburban state. 0. > Total congressional districts in the state: 3, 28. In all likelihood, he’ll win easily, but there’s one Republican who can give Van Hollen a run for his money. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 50.0% of the vote That means beating Maggie Hassan, the Democratic governor, in a race that surveys call a statistical tie. As election season winds down, we enter a new chapter in politics. Maryland: Larry Hogan (R) 71 percent In the most recent Granite State Poll, 55% of Granite Staters say they approve of the job Hassan is doing as governor, 25% disapprove, and 20% are neutral or … Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick would be a good recruit for Republicans. Currently, 58% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Hassan, 14% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral, and 20% say they don’t know enough about her to say. Expect those to drop in early December. 26. I’d rate Maryland Lean Democratic if he runs, and Safe Democratic if he doesn’t. Virginia: Terry McAuliffe (D) 58 percent: 10. 11/3/14 --The latest UNH poll shows a one-point Hassan lead. I talked about the two Georgia runoff elections in detail in my last article. About Senator Maggie Hassan. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 35.0% She’s not a poor campaigner, but not an exceptional one either. After serving on the New Hampshire State Senate and as governor, Maggie Hassan defeated the Republican incumbent to become a U.S. senator. > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan > Q4 2019 approval rating: 51.0% > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, 1st District Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan are at 57% and 53% respectively. Funny. Instead, every candidate runs on the same primary ballot, and the 4 candidates with the most votes advance to a general election with ranked-choice voting. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan If America begins to heal economically and socially under Biden, it could give Democrats everywhere a boost. According to a Public Policy Polling poll released Wednesday, the freshman senator’s approval rating has plunged to 44 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 51.0% 10/7/14 -- Havenstein is catching up, but Hassan is at 50 percent. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Deb Fischer Down the ballot, in the 2016 Senate race, then-Gov. Trump won North Carolina by less than a point, it’s definitely still a swing state. 0. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 51.9% of the vote Maggie Hassan Sep 22, 2016 Sep 22, 2016 Updated Sep 22 ... Net Approval Rating: 14% Approval Rating: 52% Disapproval Rating: 38%. Scandal-tainted incumbent Senator Richard Burr is retiring. If the four Toss-Ups on the map were evenly split between the parties, Republicans would escape with the narrowest possible margin, 51-49. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 53% of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Hassan is doing as governor, 29% disapprove, and 8% are neutral or don’t know enough to say. A combination of a savvy Democratic candidate who can appeal to suburban Trump voters and a toxic political environment for Republicans could push this seat into play. Enjoy unlimited articles at one of our lowest prices ever. With Kamala Harris (or Nancy Pelosi if Biden is unable to serve) breaking ties, Democrats need a net gain of two Senate seats throughout 2021 and 2022 to gain control of the Senate. The poll also finds that Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire’s Democratic governor, would now lead Ayotte 46 to 44 percent in a hypothetical 2016 Senate election. Gov. ... Rubio’s approval rating, 46 percent positive to 41 percent negative, ticked up 1 point. Maggie Hassan. Democrat’s best chances are in … 0. If he did, it still wouldn’t hurt Republican chances too severely. New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. Colorado voted for Joe Biden by over a dozen points. > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Andrew Kim, 3rd District > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan He probably would’ve lost to spirited challenger Jason Kander had it not been for the Trump upset up ballot. - Approval rating: 35% - Never heard of: 30% - Disapproval rating: 35% - State: Colorado - Party: Republican. Edit Close Biden improved on Hillary Clinton by 10 points in Utah. It’s important to note that unlike most other Senators seeking re-election that last faced election in 2016, Mark Kelly won election in 2020, due to a special election caused by the death of John McCain. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my home page. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) lost the county by 199 votes, or about 1.5 percentage points, in her successful challenge to then-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH). Sen. Maggie Hassan's rating is 51 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval. > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, 1st District Net Approval Ratings. > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, 3rd District The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%. That represents a 15 percent net drop from PPP’s previous poll in October. You have permission to edit this article. View Comments Love. A peculiarity in New Hampshire was that Democrats comfortably won every race for federal office in the state, but Republicans held the governorship and flipped the Executive Council and both houses of the State Legislature. Maggie Hassan (D) 56 percent: 8. - Approval rating: 37% - Never heard of: 34% - Disapproval rating: 30% - State: Missouri - Party: Republican. The good news for Republicans is that, unless the sitting President is particularly popular, the incumbent party, which is in this case the Democrats, typically loses congressional seats. Democrats haven’t won a Governor or Senate race in Iowa since 2008. Maggie Hassan; Men approve of job done by Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 53%-41%; Women narrowly disapprove of the job done by Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 46%-43% Voters have a 41%-29% approval for former Sen. Scott Brown, 30% are unsure; New England College will release its first 2016 NH Primary poll tomorrow, May 14. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 51.0% of the vote Wow. Hassan has a +19 job approval rating […] View Comments Love. Hassan continues to enjoy high favorability ratings. Hassan had an approval rating of 57% and a disapproval rating of 38%, while her opponent Havenstein had an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 33%. Edit Close. Log In; Become a Member Considering that Hassan is the incumbent, has a superior approval rating, and holds a strong lead in the polls, it is safe to say that she has this election locked down so long as she sticks to a sensible platform that appeals to the … 24/7 Wall St. reviewed approval ratings for U.S. senators and 2018 election results for House members in order to identify the least popular members of Congress. 0. Biden quietly did pretty well in Alaska for a Democrat, and Lisa Murkowski, one of the few pro-choice Republicans in Congress, has never gotten a majority of the vote in a Senate race. But many of my fellow election nerds are also looking ahead. Many national Republicans are hoping the governor will challenge Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan – Sununu’s predecessor as governor – when she’s up for reelection in 2022. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 53.6% of the vote North Carolina – Trump+1 – Richard Burr(R)+6. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire adults. New Hampshire – Biden+7 – Maggie Hassan(D)+<1. He was one of the few non-incumbent Democrats to out-perform Biden in their jurisdiction. Is it a blue state like the Presidential and Congressional results suggest, or is it actually becoming more red, as the state results would indicate? The backlash to her decision has been swift and severe. Incumbent Republican Roy Blunt was caught sleeping in 2016. I predict Republicans are at least favored in 49 seats, while Democrats are favored in 47. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) lost the county by 199 votes, or about 1.5 percentage points, in her successful challenge to then-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH). You have permission to edit this article. She’s liberal, but not usually progressive. You have permission to edit this article. That would be Governor Larry Hogan. Approval ratings are a useful indicator of whether a candidate could over or under perform the political leanings of their state. Trump won Ohio in 2016 and 2020 by 8 points. Hassan’s approval rating has fallen from 50 percent in October to 43 percent in November, a drop found mainly among Democratic-leaning voters. The Arizona Republican party is becoming increasingly right-wing, nominating the most conservative candidate that may not have wide appeal among swing voters. Blunt hasn’t improved his approval ratings much since that election. A new poll shows that Gov. > Total congressional districts in the state: 2, 30. Log In; Become a Member Complicating things further is the passing of a ballot measure in the state that abolishes primaries. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Steve Daines Joe Biden seriously outperformed expectations in New England, and particularly in New Hampshire. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). Split-ticket voting has only increased since then, and it probably benefits Republicans, especially considering Van Hollen isn’t one of the more exciting Senators in the Democratic caucus. 0. In 1993, Ayotte graduated from Villanova University School of Law, where she had served as editor of the Environmental Law Journal. A “grand slam” recruit for Republicans would be former governor Brian Sandoval, an extremely popular, moderate, Hispanic, easygoing guy who won re-election in 2014 by 46 points. She ranks favorable in Senate approval ratings where she holds 21 st place and maintains a 50% net approval rating. Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election. On the surface, one might expect Democrats to make big gains in the Senate in 2022 because Republicans are defending more seats. The only Democrat that flipped a Republican statewide office since then is Auditor Rob Sand. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). I will also post about congressional re-districting, which will happen in most states next year, and more posts reflecting on what we learned from the 2020 election. No credit card required. In October, the last time that PPP surveyed voters about Ayotte, she had a 48-35 approval rating. 84% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 50% of … Depending on how moderate or progressive of a Senator Mark Kelly ends up being, he starts the cycle uphill in his battle for re-election. Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan won by 0.1% in 2016, but she’s starting in a stronger position this cycle and has a solid approval rating. P.S. Utah and its heavily Mormon population usually votes red, but the state has demonstrated recently that it’s not afraid to go Democrat or third-party if the Republican is too right-wing and the Democrat/third party guy is moderate, civil, and Mormon. She lost by 7 points. Portman probably will only lose if there is a blue wave in 2022. Blue-leaning Nevada used to be much bluer than neighboring Arizona. The approval ratings for governors of the top 10 states averaged 62.1 percent, while the gubernatorial approval ratings for those in the bottom 10 averaged 50.8 percent. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 53% of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Hassan is doing as governor, 29% disapprove, and 8% are neutral or don’t know enough to say. I want to set my expectations for this upcoming election cycle. > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan > Q4 2019 approval rating: 51.0% > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, 1st District Florida voted for Trump by 3 and a half points. > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez With both members of the House up for reelection, 48 percent of 1st … Her thesis was The informal organizational culture's effects on women faculty in the College of Liberal Arts at the Pennsylvania State University. Colorado is Safe Democratic, while Florida is Safe Republican. Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election. > Total congressional districts in the state: 4, 29. She can’t breathe easy, but isn’t overwhelmingly vulnerable either. Maryland is a safe blue state, and on the surface, incumbent Democrat Chris Van Hollen appears a lock for re-election. An even worse scenario for Republicans would be if sex-scandal plagued former Governor Eric Greitens ends up the Republican candidate if Blunt retires or is defeated for re-nomination. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= … Independent/third-party candidates routinely get double-digits. The state has surprised before: People didn't think that Republicans would lose the governor's mansion in 2004, either. If those had gone to Trump, he would’ve had exactly 270 Electoral Votes. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan That sounds like a narrow margin, but Floridians are a stubborn people, not many can be convinced to vote a different party. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 38.0% New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. Wow. Josh Hawley (R-MO) 43% 27% 30%. Gov. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire adults. Mike Lee is one of the Senate’s most conservative members and a Trump ally, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if he faces some adversity in his re-election campaign. Sad. 84% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 50% of … Grassley is 87 years old, so he may opt to retire. A lot depends on the political environment, will Wisconsinites view Ron Johnson as a self-serving career politician past his prime, or an important line of defense against the Democratic party’s more radical policies? > Only House member: Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte, state at-large I’ll post for the elections that do happen, such as the Georgia runoffs. from Pennsylvania State University in political science. Even if Hogan were to fall short, he’d force Democrats to push hard to hold a seat in a state that’s basically a Republican desert, which would be a victory. If House Democrats pass legislation that Americans approve of, only to have that legislation blocked or filibustered by the GOP, negative sentiments could turn towards Senate Republicans. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). The problem is that most of the Republican-held seats are in states that lean red or are becoming redder. Alaska’s a strange state, and Murkowski a strange politician, so I’ll put this race in Likely Republican despite the state’s solid red hue. New Hampshire The state has surprised before: People didn't think that Republicans would lose the governor's mansion in 2004, either. Enjoy more articles by logging in or creating a free account. Incumbent Republican Rob Portman has built his own brand and has won significant cross-over support in both of his Senate elections. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Total congressional districts in the state: 12. Johnson ramped up his campaign with people like Paul Ryan and Scott Walker in a way Democrat Russ Feingold was incapable of responding to. 0. Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent Democrat, might fit the description of “generic Democrat” the best. This seat may be the last one Democrats can make interesting. Alaska, in it’s isolation, is arguably the state with the largest third-party presence in America. While most of the “Safe” races for either party are boring affairs that I won’t get into much, I do want to address Colorado and Florida. Enjoy more articles by logging in or creating a free account. In Colorado, Michael Bennet performs well with college-educated white voters, and the major Republican politicians in Colorado are mostly right-wing ideologues who won’t be able to make major gains among those voters. However, Nevadans average lower income and lower academic achievement than Arizonans, as well as a pro-Trump swing among Latinos, have made Arizona and Nevada more even. The youngest person currently serving in the United States Senate was previously the attorney general of Missouri, defeating incumbent Claire McCaskill in a 2018 election. Hassan’s approval rating has fallen from 50 percent in October to 43 percent in November, a drop found mainly among Democratic-leaning voters. - Approval rating: 50% - Never heard of: 17% - Disapproval rating: 33% - State: New Hampshire - Party: Democrat. Maggie Hassan to challenge freshman Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte in … I’m doubtful Democrats can reach 2016 levels of Latino support against Marco Rubio, and older voters will swing back towards Republicans in the mid-term elections after shifting a bit towards Biden. Democrats have a wide bench full of potential candidates, such as congressmen Mark Pocan or Ron Kind, that could do a better job than Feingold. > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Don Bacon, 2nd District Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire residents. Hassan has a +19 job approval rating […] Ayotte was born in Nashua, New Hampshire. That governor, Chris Sununu, who won re-election in a landslide, has the intention of running for Senate against popular Senator Maggie Hassan. although that disguises pro-Republican trends around Cleveland and pro-Democrat trends around Columbus and Dayton. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) 51% 14% 35%. https://www.insidesources.com/sununu-poll-governor-hassan-senate Nebraska This will be an open seat with no incumbent running, and, hopefully, the Democratic candidate won’t be involved in an adultery scandal. Maggie Hassan Sep 22, 2016 Sep 22, 2016 Updated Sep 22 ... Net Approval Rating: 14% Approval Rating: 52% Disapproval Rating: 38%. Sad. 0. Added together, Hassan’s Adjusted Margin of Victory is 4.7%. Maryland – 2020 Result: Biden+32 – Last Senate Result: Van Hollen(D)+25. Joe Biden will hopefully preside over a gradual return to normalcy in America, as COVID-19 vaccines become widely available in 2021. ... Maggie Hassan … He won by less than 25,000 votes in each of Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. The 11-point surge in disapproval threatens Ayotte's 2016 reelection, when she could face popular Democratic Gov. Nevada 3. Governor Maggie Hassan led possible Republican challengers by double digits on our poll this weekend. Republicans touted that as a win given that Pritzker spent $58 million of his own money to push for its approval. Democrats thought they had a good shot at flipping Iowa in 2020 with Theresa Greenfield who raised buckets of cash. For Democrats, the good news is that Republicans have to defend four Senate seats in states Biden won, while no Democrat will have to face re-election in a Trump state. > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%. She has now tumbled underwater, with 46 percent disapproving and 44 percent approving. > Total congressional districts in the state: 1, 27. His shadow will loom large in the race. Wow. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 50.9% of the vote Edit Close. Maggie Hassan Sep 22, 2016 Sep 22, 2016 Updated Sep 30 ... Net Approval Rating: 14% Approval Rating: 52% Disapproval Rating: 38%. Former Senator Dean Heller could seek redemption. Maggie Hassan. View Comments Love. One of two things I wish to produce before my semi-hiatus is my 2022 Senate Ratings. In 2020, we saw a resurgence in split-ticket voting, and in the most crucial Senate races, it benefited Republicans. Few in Wisconsin politics don’t remember Ron Johnson’s Lazarus-style comeback in 2016. Colorado and Florida are former swing states. Democrats would need a particularly outstanding candidate to come out of the woodwork to flip Iowa. Edit Close. Utah: Gary Herbert (R) 64 percent: 9. The consensus on both sides is that the era where Democrats can compete in Missouri has likely passed. Cory Gardner narrowly defeated the Democratic incumbent in 2014 to become senator there, and today is the only Republican serving Colorado in a statewide elected office. Like in almost every election since 2012, Democrats could try to make Ohio competitive, only to watch it swing Republican on Election Night. Pennsylvania was just as competitive down ballot as it was on the Presidential level in 2020, so unless the political environment overwhelmingly favors one party, expect this race to be a nail-biter. You have permission to edit this article. She is fighting off a challenge from Democratic Gov. In Nevada, a lot depends on what the national environment looks like for Democrats, and on who Republicans nominate against her. Maggie Hassan's approval ratings are up.The WMUR Granite State Poll shows that Hassan's job approval rating is at 58 … Except for special elections and candidacy declarations, there won’t be much going on that will impact elections. You have permission to edit this article. In Hassan’s case, New Hampshire has shifted 1.5% more towards Republicans since 2016. That said, even if Hogan runs, I’d still rather be Van Hollen, as Hogan would have to provide actual policy positions on divisive national issues, and I’m not sure even he would be able to defy Maryland’s blueness in a federal race. Born in Boston in 1958, she has long been involved in government. Sad. Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th, 2021. In 2018, the best year for Democrats this decade, Florida still voted Republican. Funny. The other resource I wish to provide is 2021-2022 Governor Ratings. Governor Maggie Hassan led possible Republican challengers by double digits on our poll this weekend. New Hampshire – Biden+7 – Maggie Hassan(D)+<1 Joe Biden seriously outperformed expectations in New England, and particularly in New Hampshire. 7-term Senator Chuck Grassley would have little trouble getting re-elected, unless 2022 becomes a blue wave year. Her approval rating, 51-33, hasn’t changed much since we polled in April: +19 then, +18 now. In Pennsylvania, Republican incumbent Pat Toomey has decided to retire. It would be an epic battle not just between two of the state’s political heavyweights, but also a battle that will decide what New Hampshire really is. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 54% of Granite Staters say they approve of the job Hassan is doing as governor, 30% disapprove, and 15% are neutral or … New Jersey Montana 0. “New Hampshire is a good bellwether for fallout from the gun vote,” Public Policy Polling president Dean Debnam said in a statement. 85% of Democrats approve of the job of Gov. The one that Democrats want: Maggie Hassan National Democrats have been working hard to recruit Gov. Gov. I understand if you are still recovering from the 2020 election, or if you just want a break from politics. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire residents. Log In; Become a Member She attended Nashua High School and received a B.A. The battle for the Senate in 2022 starts without one party holding a clear advantage, but both parties have reasons to hope that they might come to be heavier favorites. Georgia – Biden+>1 – David Perdue(R)+2/Raphael Warnock(D)+7. Thank you for reading this article. Biden won, but not by very much. The nominations are wide open for both parties, but Democrats appear to have the stronger bench of candidates, such as congresspeople Conor Lamb or Chrissy Houlahan, Governor Tom Wolf, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, or Attorney General Josh Shapiro. Her approval rating, 51-33, hasn’t changed much since we polled in April: +19 then, +18 now. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan The days of these two states being razor-close on Election Night are over. Nonetheless, expect a drop in the frequency of posts for the next half year starting next year. For Trump by 3 and a half points percent positive to 41 percent negative, up. Fitzpatrick would be a good shot at flipping Iowa in 2020, we enter a New chapter politics. … a New poll shows that Gov Hassan … Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan continues to have approval... Margin, 51-49 Masto ( D ) 58 percent: 9 in 47 for special and. 46 percent positive to 41 percent negative, ticked up 1 point the Johnson administration and both were... Challenger Jason Kander had it not been for the Trump upset up.... In Hassan ’ s Lazarus-style comeback in 2016 shows that Gov Masto ( D ) +25 resource i wish provide. 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